Overview of the Crisis
On 19 December 2008, an Egyptian brokered cease-fire between Hamas and Israel came to an end after 6 months of relative calm. Continued unmet demands from both sides, saw an escalation to open conflict, now in its 12th day. With over 550 Palestinian deaths and 1 Israeli soldier killed, the ensuing humanitarian crisis and potential regional implications are significant. The already dwindling public infrastructure has been further damaged and in some cases destroyed by Israeli bombardments and artillery shell, including UNRWA facilities and government buildings. International diplomatic efforts have been underway to bring about an immediate cease-fire. After a number of unsuccessful attempts by the Security Council to reach an agreement, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and French President Nicolas Sarkozy jointly proposed a plan on Tuesday 6 January which would bring together all the main parties and take all measures to end the conflict in Gaza. The plan envisages the resumption of the delivery of aid to Gaza and talks with Israel on border security.
The regional implications of this crisis are mainly political. Indeed, the humanitarian and economic crisis in Gaza, while it affects Gaza and its inhabitants tremendously, does not have much spill-over effects on its neighbours. Furthermore, due to the movement restrictions imposed on the Palestinians in Gaza, they are unable to flee the war and therefore this crisis has not created a large scale refugee problem that neighbouring states would have to cope with. The following describes other regional implications.
Regional Impact
Peace Process
Recent efforts to revive the peace process were made in 2007, when the Arab League renewed its commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative, presented in Beirut in 2002 by the Crown Prince King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. The initiative which includes a return to the 1967 borders and a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital was widely accepted by Arab countries, including the Palestinian Authority as well as support from Israel. The PA recently published the details of this peace plan in Israeli print media, in an effort of rapprochement to inform the Israeli population. Parellel initiatives were pushed by the United States last year, namely the Annapolis process which lead to a Conference in November 2007, aiming to produce a substantive document on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict along the lines of President George W. Bush's Roadmap For Peace, with the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state.
The current crisis in Gaza will have dire consequences on the ongoing peace process, as previous confidence building efforts between the Palestinian Authority and Israel on one side, and third party brokered cease-fires between Hamas and Israel on the other side, would have been in vein. This crisis will also create a potential for further radicalization of certain groups within Palestinian society, leading to increased risk of continued violence and conflict. The marginalization of some key Arab countries such as Egypt and Syria, as a result of their response for some and silence for others during this crisis, will also further burden any future efforts for renewed peace talks. On the other hand, the recent joint efforts made by Arab States at the Security Council on pushing for a cease-fire, shows a potential for unified efforts and support for peace.
The crisis will also have negative consequences on internal reconciliation efforts between various factions within Palestinian society. The failure to convene the Palestinian Reconciliation Dialogue in Cairo last November, already demonstrated its fragile grounds. Since Hamas’ election in 2005, the group has been in a power struggle with the Fateh party, led by Mahmoud Abbass. In July 2007, Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip, ousting Fateh, which currently controls the West Bank. Following the take over of power in the Strip, continuing internal fighting between various Palestinian factions had intensified. The current crisis however has resulted in increasing Palestinian support for Hamas.
Neighbouring states
Egypt
In 2005, after the Israeli disengagement of Gaza, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority were responsible for controlling the Rafah Crossing in the presence of EU monitors, following an agreement on Movement and Access with Israel. As a result of the abduction of IDF soldier, Gilat Shalit in 2006 and continued military aggression from both Israel and Hamas, Rafah, as all other crossings into Gaza were restricted and under the control of the Israeli authorities.
Egypt’s position first as an ally of Israel and second as a country with a border with the Gaza Strip, has faced difficult times, especially more recently with the conflict that has erupted in Gaza. Egypt’s initial decision to deny access to its country to fleeing Palestinians has been criticized by most of the Arab world. Egypt’s current responsibility for the movement of Palestinians, its obligation to deal directly with Hamas to solve the border crisis while it continues to maintain ties with the West and with Israel, has created an environment of uncertainty and instability. On the other hand, its direct links to Hamas, does provide a third party mediator between the warring parties.
Lebanon
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israeli forces which took place in the summer of 2006 is a reminder that continued tensions exist between two well-armed foes. Hezbollah’s leader has recently spoken out against Israel’s actions in Gaza, as has most Lebanese political leaders. More recently, Israel’s Prime Minister has confirmed that its forces are ready in the North for any possible retaliation from Hezbollah. Speculation as to ties which exist between Hezbollah and Hamas, especially in terms of arms supply and training, has increased further these tensions. Lebanon, which is recovering from a tense previous 2 years, is not in the position to suffer from further instability, if an escalation were to take place between Israel and Hezbollah.
Humanitarian and EconomicGaza has been subject to a blockage for already 18 months prior to the beginning of the current crisis, crippling its economy to a state of almost entire dependency on humanitarian and external aid. The effect of the ongoing bombardments and land operations on its infrastructure, water supply systems and basic utilities, will be unprecedented once a damage evaluation is undertaken when a cease-fire is put in place. This region is already burdened by crises of even higher proportions such as the ongoing displacement situation as a result of the Iraq war, the continuous inflow of refugees into Egypt mainly from Sudan, but increasingly from Iraq as well, the Palestinian issue in Lebanon which resulted in the destruction of a refugee camp last year in the North, the recent conflict in Yemen and ongoing tensions between Syria, Iran and Israel. In addition to these crises, the global economic crisis has also affected the countries in this region with high inflation rates and drastic decreases in oil revenues. Therefore, in these difficult times, enhanced regional cooperation cannot be overemphasized. It is the regional nature of this conflict that should be taken into consideration when Arab states decide to take action. Furthermore, the financial crisis will also result in western donor governments’ aid fatigue and therefore will require increased support from Arab states to assist in the recovery of Gaza in the short term and the economic development of the Strip in the longer term. This crisis is an opportunity for the Arab world to demonstrate its capacity to unify and work together on this important issue.
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