Lebanese Government at Risk of Collapse if Tribunal indicts Hezbollah

The English language Lebanese newspaper, the Daily Star has published an interesting article summarising the current political situation in Lebanon. Read here.

As a result of the successful talks in Qatar in 2008, following 18 months of political crisis in Lebanon, Saad Hariri, Rafik Hariri's son, formed a coallition government with Hezbollah and its allies. It seems as though today, due to the UN's Special Tribunal for Lebanon's indictments of Hezbollah members next month, a political and security crisis could ensue.

The Daily Star article linked above states that: "The Hizbullah warnings put Hariri in a thorny position. He either continues supporting the Tribunal, even if it accuses the group, putting him on a collision course with Hizbullah. Or he denounces the UN investigation into his father’s death, and risks losing international support and credibility."

It concludes that: “It does not seem there is a specific way out. The crisis is political. It [might] develop to a dangerous security crisis.”

Nasrallah's evidence of Israel's involvement in Hariri's murder in 2005

Last night, Al Manar television (Hezbollah's own TV channel) broadcasted live Nasrallah's much anticipated speech.

For obvious security reasons he always addresses the media by video link from an undisclosed location. Editors-in-Chief of major Lebanese papers and media outlets were invited including some political leaders.

A few weeks ago, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon declared that it will be indicting individuals in its September report, for the murder of Rafik Hariri in 2005. Some of these individuals are members of Hezbollah, hence Nasrallah's anger at this announcement. He is now adamant to prove that Israel is the culprit behind Hariri's murder. His speech yesterday was an opportunity for him to show footage intercepted from Israeli surveillance drones which hover over Lebanese territory on a regular basis. The footage dates back to 1993 and shows regular surveillance of Hariri, his family and political allies.

Nasrallah claimed that it was in Israel's interest to assassinate Hariri, which ultimately led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, therefore providing a more favorable environment for Israel in its continued struggle against Lebanon and its resistance. He also stated that Israel hoped for Lebanese civil unrest and instability as a result of the 2005 murder.

The Tribunal has now requested that Nasrallah hand over this evidence for further investigation.

There is speculation on the streets in Lebanon that a crisis is in the making and that another war between Lebanon and Israel could take place in the not so distant future... Time to stock up on emergency food supplies and an evacuation bag?

Deadly Israeli-Lebanon border clash today

The situation seems to be worsening in the Middle East, with deteriorating diplomatic relations in the region and a non-existent peace process in Palestine. The situation in Gaza is intolerable and tension is rising.

The UN tribunal which was set up to investigate the assassination of Hariri in 2005 is ready to indict individuals, which include members of the Hizbullah group.

Nasrallah, it's charismatic leader, has officially denounced the tribunal and its indictments, brushing them off as an Israeli/American plot against his party. Analysts claim that violence could ensue in September. Ramadan will start in a few days, the heat and humidity in the region is at its maximum, not a good combination in a situation of increased political tension!

Today is an example of the potential for small incidences to spark regional conflict (read article):

This is the worst incident since the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war, which lasted 30 days and devastated the South of Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs, Hezbollah's strongholds.

A new International Crisis Group report published yesterday claimed that:

"Should hostilities break out, Israel will want to hit hard and fast to avoid duplicating the 2006 scenario. It will be less likely than in the past to distinguish between Hizbollah and a Lebanese government of which the Shiite movement is an integral part and more likely to take aim at Syria – both because it is the more vulnerable target and because it is Hizbollah’s principal supplier of military and logistical support. Meanwhile, as tensions have risen, the so-called “axis of resistance” – Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah – has been busy intensifying security ties. Involvement by one in the event of attack against another no longer can be dismissed as idle speculation. But that is only the better half of the story. Beneath the surface, tensions are mounting with no obvious safety valve. The deterrence regime has helped keep the peace, but the process it perpetuates – mutually reinforcing military preparations; Hizbollah’s growing and more sophisticated arsenal; escalating Israeli threats – pulls in the opposite direction and could trigger the very outcome it has averted so far. If Israel would not like a war, it does not like what it is seeing either."