Following Lebanon's general elections on June 7th 2009
(see posting below dated 8 June 2009), the March 14 alliance, Hariri's led group which includes Geagea's Lebanese Forces and Gemayel's Phalangist Kataeb party, won a majority in Parliament with 60 seats. The opposition group, known as March 8, led by Hezbollah and Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement won 57 seats.
Saad Hariri, PM designate
What most people outside Lebanon don't realise is how small this country is and subsequently how small the electorate is: 1.6 million people. That is the population of Brussels.
The twist in the story comes as follows. After the elections, the leader of the majority, Saad Hariri, son of slain Rafik Hariri, became PM designate. He was thus tasked to form his government and present an agreed upon cabinet line-up to the President of the Republic, Michel Suleiman.
This is the Middle East after all! Things are not that simple. Indeed, the opposition group, March 8, keen on being included in the future cabinet, demanded a fair amount of ministerial posts, including the strategic Ministry of the Interior as well as Telecommunications.
Telecommunications?! Would be the first question of a well educated, well politically versed Westerner... Of couse! Would be the response of a Lebanese, so used to the political ramblings of his/her country. I shall explain.
Michel Aoun has three daughters. No sons. In a country of family dynasties associated to political clientalism and power, that is a problem indeed. One of Aoun's daughters married a man called Bassil. Bassil, a somewhat short and clumsly looking fellow was pushed onto the political scene thanks to his father in law. He became Minister for Telecommunications in the previous government. Bassil was not re-elected by his constituents in the June 7th elections and therefore did not win a seat in Parliament. Aoun, being part of the opposition, demanded that Hariri include in his cabinet, Bassil once again as the Minister for Telecommunications, despite his lack of a constituency. Hariri categorically refused.
So why is Telecommunications such a strategic post? Well, do you remember Lebanon's 3 week crisis which led to the Doha agreement in May 2008?
(see posting below, and followoing posts on the same subject, titled "Unrest in Lebanon: Day 3" on Friday 9th May 2008). The uprising of Hezbollah at the time was caused by a row over issues pertaining to the group's monopoly on a telecommunications network and its exclusive use, for security and intelligence purposes. Aoun is an ally of Hezbollah and his son in law, Bassil was Minister, apparently often sharing with Hezbollah, individual files through the ministry's capacity to intercept information from emails, phone calls and other forms of communication.
So voila, that is why that ministry is so important, and that is why, Lebanon has not had a government for the past 3 months. While Somalia is visibly a country without a government, Lebanon continues to function well. The Lebanese both don't really notice the lack of a government and don't really miss it.
This will sound strange to Western ears (we who are used to rules, structure, fines and punishment for bad deeds), but it is the lawnessness here that creates this sense of false stability. It is the lack of rules and regulations that oils the wheels of this country, while life goes on uninterrupted.
A few days ago, Hariri went ahead and presented a cabinet line-up (which had not been agreed on by the opposition) to President Suleiman, responsible for reviewing it and then accepting it. Of course, the opposition vehemently rejected the proposal and Suleiman, of couse, could not and would not sign it.
As a result, during the Iftar (the break of the fast at sunset during the holy month of Ramadan) organised yesterday evening at the Prime Minister's Office in the Grand Serail, Hariri hinted at stepping down and offering his letter of resignation to the President...
The United Nations' General Assembly will inaugurate its 64th Session in 5 days, on 15 September 2009. All heads of states members of the United Nations, address the General Assembly each year. How can Michel Suleiman address the United Nations without an effective government in place?.... Let's see if that is an incentive enough for majority and opposition to come to a consensus and quickly agree on a cabinet... an agreement which some say will be pushed by Syria and Saudia Arabia, on both fronts of the Lebanese divide....
